The elections

I’ve always believed in the wisdom of the American people en masse. I don’t mean clairvoyance, just wisdom. In hindsight, the election of Jimmy Carter was an utter disaster, but at the time, after Watergate and Gerald Ford, it looked like the right choice. That’s what I mean by wisdom as opposed to clairvoyance. And, while these latest elections are certainly not the first time I’ve been surprised, they are the most surprising. So, trusting in the wisdom – not the clairvoyance -- of the American people, I’m trying to puzzle out what this election means.

Theory One: The American people reject Bush’s war in Iraq and want to bring the troops home now. Nah. I gotta reject that because it is supremely unwise. Our military is doing good work, casualties are unbelievably low, and we’re killing the enemy. Sure, it’s complicated and messy, and American soldiers are getting killed, and none of that is good, but pulling out would be worse in so many ways it’s difficult to count them all. I’ll just touch on the principal ways this is unwise.

First, America will lose all credibility with the kinds of people in the Middle East that are on our side. The people resisting Syrian rule in Lebanon; the opposition in Iran; the 90 percent of Iraqis who want a stable society that they can lead normal lives in. All of them will know, should we run away, that America cannot be trusted to stand for the values we espouse. On the other hand, we will also lose all credibility the people who oppose our values. Syria; the Iranian Mullah-thugs; Al Queda, Hezzbolah and their fellow dens of snakes. They will learn likewise, that this is the American generation that runs away from its historic duties, and that they therefore have a free hand – if only they can hold on long enough – to do whatever they want, wherever they want, and the Skittish Generation will not long oppose them.

Second, it would be supremely unwise to run away from Iraq because we are making real progress there and making lives better for many, many people. Not all, but many. And we have invested billions to do this. We will have to invest billions more, and many more American lives as well, to complete it, but to run away now would result in civil war, the destruction of what we have constructed to date, and abandoning the people who put their hopes in our promises (see reason one). In short, it would be a huge waste of already invested resources.

Well, I can think of others but that’s enough for me. Given the inherent wisdom of the American people, this cannot explain the elections.

Theory Two: The people wanted to gum up the works in the government because a) they don’t trust the Republicans anymore to act like conservatives, and b) they fear the government has gone too far intruding on citizens’ rights.

There’s a lot to be said for both of these points. This administration spends money like rabbits have babies. Mark Foley. Enron. Halliburton. Etcetera.

Problem is, if you were concerned that the Republicans weren’t conservative enough, would you turn power over to the Democrats? That can’t be the reason, again, trusting in the wisdom of the American people

And the government maybe has gone too far intruding on the rights of citizens. But then again, I just wrote that sentence. And you just read it. In other words, all of the “intrusions” we hear about from the left really don’t touch people’s daily lives. They’re hypothetical for most people. Am I worried about the government listening in on all of my international phone calls? I don’t make any international phone calls. Do you? Didn’t think so.

Theory Three: The American people are confused about the state of the world and the nature of this war, and want to give someone else a chance to set things right.

That seems right. I think most Americans know we’re at war with an implacable enemy, and that we have to defeat that enemy. Islam is a prison, and the Wahhabists and Shiite fanatics want to extend the walls of that prison to include us. We know that can’t be allowed to happen, and frankly we’d like to see those walls rolled back. But the language of this war “on Terror,” and the lack of geographical focus are confusing. Bush’s efforts see to be making some progress, but can someone else do this better?

I don’t know. But t seems to me the American people have elected to roll the dice and find out.

The problem for the Democrats is this: The problems that the American people elected them to solve are the problems of war, not the minimum wage or health care. If they focus on the latter to the exclusion of the former, they will pay heavily in 2008.